It was a matchup no one thought they would see, and then suddenly no one could forget. The seemingly invincible Conor McGregor was soundly defeated by Nate Diaz, who stepped in on just a few days’ notice to take on the sport’s biggest star. The result: a bloody battle that took a sudden surprise twist in favor of the huge underdog.
Having his choice of several potential championship matchups in two divisions, McGregor demanded and secured a rematch, and has since stoked his confidence to new heights.
It’s a little surprising McGregor is still favored in their rematch, albeit only slightly. Perhaps supporters are crediting McGregor’s team to make the necessary adjustments against Diaz, who is not known for game planning his opponents. Regardless, many key stylistic elements of the matchup have not changed, it will just be the execution that differentiates who has the upper hand, and perhaps a change in McGregor’s prior aggressive posture.
Advertisement
McGregor is accustomed to being the rangier striker on fight night, thanks to one of the largest fighting frames in the Featherweight division. And, as a southpaw, he typically had the stance advantage over opponents as well. But all that changed when he moved up not one, but two weight classes, to face another rangy southpaw in Diaz. Without the physical mismatch, McGregor was forced to be quite aggressive, opening up his already mediocre defense, and failing to get the easy knockout against a larger opponent.
Size aside, both men have solid offensive striking skills. Both are able to press the opponents on pace, and both have above average accuracy. McGregor boasts the higher knockdown rate, but Diaz has better head-strike avoidance.
The biggest tradeoff is in the strike selection, where McGregor throws a lot of power punches and head kicks, looking for the highlight reel finish. Fully 80 percent of McGregor’s head strikes are power shots, leaving only 20 percent for jabs. Meanwhile Diaz uses a high mix of jabs (nearly 60 percent of punches thrown), in a primarily high-volume boxing attack. So while McGregor could get a quick finish on a single key strike, Diaz will be accumulating damage in return in ways that could add up — just as they did last time.
On the mat, Diaz is willing to accept take downs in order to set up his submission game. No matter how much preparation McGregor has managed in the months since their first fight, Diaz will retain the grappling advantage again here. Should McGregor mix in take downs, he’s unlikely to advance or threaten a finish there, and will have to be on the defensive for submissions. Still, McGregor could smartly mix up his levels to ensure he controls the round-to-round action.
On performance metrics alone, McGregor has looked great on paper, and was unstoppable until he met Diaz. And that makes it hard to discount the weight-division change, and the size advantage, Diaz has. Crediting McGregor’s strategic thinking and coaching while underestimating Diaz’s own ability to execute better with a full training camp would also be a mistake. Diaz remains a live underdog, once again.
Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by the author of “Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts.”
ncG1vNJzZmivp6x7uK3SoaCnn6Sku7G70q1lnKedZLumw9JonZqmk656tMDArapor6Bkf3F9lWhncWdhbny2ssJmaWlqXaq7pbHRnaagZZiWv6W42GalmqyVYrGqrdlmmqitnJl6orPAoqVmrJ%2Blva2xjJymp6eiYrqks9GenqiqXw%3D%3D